@Article{CastroVonRVonRBeze:2023:EvCaWa,
               author = "Castro, Aline Anderson de and Von Randow, Celso and Von Randow, 
                         Rita de Cassia Silva and Bezerra, Francisco Gilney Silva",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Universidade de 
                         S{\~a}o Paulo (USP)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas 
                         Espaciais (INPE)}",
                title = "Evaluating carbon and water fluxes and stocks in Brazil under 
                         changing climate and refined regional scenarios for changes in 
                         land use",
              journal = "Frontiers in Climate",
                 year = "2023",
               volume = "4",
                pages = "e941900",
                month = "Sept.",
             keywords = "climate change, scenarios, Brazilian biomes, projections, land-use 
                         change.",
             abstract = "Climate change and land-use change can alter the role of natural 
                         vegetation as a sink or source of atmospheric carbon. In this 
                         work, we evaluate the response of water and carbon fluxes and 
                         stocks in Brazilian biomes as a proxy for ecosystem services of 
                         regional climate regulation under two contrasting future 
                         scenarios: a sustainable development scenario, where some 
                         deforested areas are restored by vegetation regrowth combined with 
                         a low representative concentration pathway, and a pessimistic 
                         scenario, where there is still high deforestation rates and strong 
                         climate change. We used refined regional scenarios for land-use 
                         change in Brazil, together with climate projections of the 
                         HADGEM2-ES model for RCPs 2.6 and 8.5 to drive a land surface 
                         model and assess possible future impacts in surface fluxes. Our 
                         results show that drying climate and shifts of natural vegetation 
                         into anthropogenic land use might shift part of upperstory biomass 
                         into understory biomass, which can be more vulnerable to dry 
                         events. The simulations also show that climate change appears to 
                         drive most of the water balance changes compared to land-use 
                         change, especially over the Amazon.",
                  doi = "10.3389/fclim.2022.941900",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2022.941900",
                 issn = "2624-9553",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "fclim-04-941900.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "03 maio 2024"
}